I get asked a lot about “the state of the job market,” and what I’m seeing. I never want to sound like I’m evading the question, but I think it’s pretty important to be thoughtful about what “the job market” means — to me, and to the asker.
I just finished the book Who Gets What and Why, by Nobel-winning economist Alvin Roth. It’s all about markets, and what makes them work well or poorly, and the options for intervention, design, and thoughtful rules or constraints to help markets work better.
The “job market” isn’t like the automobile market, or another commodity market. Although supply and demand are relevant in the job market, it’s much more like a marriage market, a real estate market, or a college admissions process. Both sides need to pick one another, and both sides feel some amount of pressure to compete and signal their desirability to the people on the other side of a transaction.
(A great book to read in connection with Who Gets What and Why is Pedigree, by Lauren Rivera, which describes the factors that go into hiring decisions for highly-selective consulting and law firms. I find it equal parts instructive and depressing.)
What are ways that the job market functions like a more traditional commodity market? Well, there are seasons and external events that predict supply and demand, so we can predict more competition, slower demand, or upward or downward pressure on salaries to have an effect.
But much more about the job market is like a real estate market; “local” to industry, region, and seniority level. We might know something about the competitiveness of a particular market, but it doesn’t tell an individual much about how to behave or what to expect.
Roth’s book talks about market failure and market disintegration, and it looks to me like there are some failures in the hiring process that will influence the experience of job hunters. I’ll write more about what I see emerging, and how to proceed in the face of uncertainty and a lack of clear feedback.
I enjoyed this conversation between Executive Career Search expert Debra Boggs and recruiter Terry Petzold about why they call 2024 “The Year of Frustration” and their observations about lead time, the likelihood of ghosting, and the importance of relationships and networks — and their reasons for optimism. It’s about the market for tech executives, but the points they’ve raised are applicable across industries.
